Bharat Forecast System (BFS)

The launch of the Bharat Forecast System (BFS) marks a monumental achievement for India, positioning the nation as a global leader in meteorological science. 

This indigenously developed, ultra-high-resolution weather prediction model is a major step towards enhancing India’s climate resilience by providing unprecedented accuracy in forecasts, transforming disaster management, and aiding critical sectors like agriculture and water resource management. The fully operational Bharat Forecast System is poised to democratize access to timely and localised weather information for every village and community across the country.

What is the Bharat Forecast System (BFS)?

The Bharat Forecast System (BFS) is India’s first indigenously built, next-generation numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. It was unveiled by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and is considered one of the world's most precise weather forecasting systems.

BFS is fundamentally defined by its remarkable spatial resolution of 6 km x 6 km. This ultra-fine grid size allows for far more detailed and location-specific predictions compared to India’s previous operational models, which operated at a 12 km x 12 km resolution. The system covers the entire Indian mainland and the critical tropical region spanning from 30° South to 30° North latitude.

Features of Bharat Forecast System

The superior performance of the Bharat Forecast System is a result of advanced computing power and cutting-edge meteorological techniques:

• World’s Highest Resolution: The 6 km x 6 km grid makes BFS the highest-resolution operational model globally used by any national meteorological agency. This resolution reduces the unit of area analysed from 144 sq km (12x12 km) to just 36 sq km, significantly improving the ability to detect and predict smaller, localised weather variations.

• Enhanced Accuracy: The system has demonstrated a 64% better accuracy in high-risk zones and a 30% improvement in forecasting extreme rainfall events compared to existing models.

• Faster Processing: BFS is powered by high-performance computing (HPC) systems—the 'Arka' supercomputer at IITM, Pune, and 'Arunika' at NCMRWF, Delhi. These systems, with 'Arka' alone having a capacity of 11.77 petaflops, have reduced the time required to produce a forecast from the previous 12–14 hours to a mere 4–6 hours.

• Advanced Grid Model: It utilises the advanced Triangular Cubic Octahedral (TCo) dynamical grid model for real-time atmospheric modelling.

• Nowcasting Capability: The system integrates real-time input from a network of 40 Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) across the country, with plans to expand the network to 100 radars. This integration is crucial for issuing nowcasts, very short-term, immediate weather forecasts for the next two hour,s which are vital for rapidly evolving severe weather systems.

Development and Indigenous Innovation

The Bharat Forecast System was developed indigenously by scientists at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, an autonomous institute under the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences. The development is a major testament to the government’s 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' (Self-Reliant India) initiative and aligns with the national 'Mission Mausam' to upgrade the country's climate forecasting infrastructure. The model underwent rigorous experimental testing starting in 2022 before being officially launched for full-scale operational use by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Significance and Applications of BFS

The enhanced precision and speed of BFS have wide-ranging applications across various sectors:

Disaster Management and Early Warning

The improved resolution allows for the accurate detection and prediction of highly localised, extreme weather events that were previously difficult to forecast.

• Extreme Events: BFS significantly enhances early warning systems for natural disasters such as cyclones, flash floods, cloudbursts, and heavy rainfall.

• Reduced Losses: By delivering faster, more precise warnings (within 4-6 hours), the system enables timely evacuation and resource mobilisation, which helps in minimising human casualties and reducing economic losses in infrastructure and public safety.

Agriculture and Water Management

The provision of location-specific data is a game-changer for India's farm-dependent economy.

• Panchayat-Level Forecasts: BFS provides tailored, short-range and nowcasts down to the village and block level, which is critical for supporting rural communities.

• Informed Decisions: Farmers can make data-driven decisions on crop planning, irrigation scheduling, and harvesting based on precise rainfall and temperature warnings, leading to better crop yield resilience.

• Resource Planning: Water management authorities benefit from accurate rainfall patterns for efficient management of reservoirs, dams, and flood risk, while also assisting in planning for droughts.

BFS A Leap in Global Meteorology

The operational status of the 6 km resolution in the Bharat Forecast System firmly establishes India among the global leaders in weather prediction.

 By achieving this resolution, India surpasses the capabilities of operational models used by several advanced economies, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union, whose models typically operate at a lower resolution of 9–14 km. 

This technological breakthrough is expected to not only benefit India but also assist neighbouring countries and the broader tropical region with improved weather prediction and climate management, reinforcing India's strategic role as a regional meteorological leader.