Chance And Probability

Chance is a part of our everyday lives. Everyday we make judgements based on probability:

There is a 90% chance the Bulls will win the game tomorrow.

There is a sixty percent chance of thunderstorm this afternoon.

We have a 50-50 chance of winning the game.

There is a 20% chance of rain today.

Although we assign certain probabilities to certain events, others might assign different probabilities to those same events due to their difference of opinion. For example, not everyone agrees with the high chance of the Bulls winning the game. They might say that there is a 20% chance the Bulls will win the game tomorrow. It all depends on what the person believes. Chance may result from human design such as casino games and the lottery, or it may result from nature such as determining a person’s sex and other human characteristics. Probability is defined as the branch of mathematics that describes the pattern of chance outcomes.

Describing probabilities

We often make judgments as to whether an event will take place, and use words to describe how probable that event is. For example, we might say that it is likely that the sun will come up tomorrow, or that it is impossible to find somebody who is more than 3m tall.

The probability scale

Maths uses numbers to describe probabilities. Probabilities can be written as fractions, decimals or percentages. You can also use a probability scale, starting at 0 (impossible) and ending at 1 (certain).

Here are some events placed on the probability scale

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